Ilia Topuria is a resounding -400 favorite at Sportsbook over Charles Oliveira (+285) in the vacant UFC lightweight title fight at UFC 317 on June 28.
Topuria enters this fight as the odds-on favorite, making his lightweight debut with an immediate shot at the title recently vacated by Islam Makhachev. Meanwhile, Oliveira is the next logical contender for the belt.
Topuria vs Oliveira Odds - UFC 318
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | -400 |
| Charles Oliveira | +285 |
Odds as of May 29 at Sportsbook
Why is the lightweight belt vacant?
The lightweight belt will become vacant when this fight begins on June 28. Former champ Makhachev has long eyed a move to welterweight, and he is next in line to fight current 170-pound champ Jack Della Maddalena. Makhachev may return to lightweight after that fight, but, for now, Charles and Ilia will fight for the belt.
UFC 317: How To Bet Topuria
I'm rushing to Sportsbook to place a bet on Topuria by knockout. Obviously props odds aren't out as of late-May, but I'll go 2u at plus-money here once I can. Charles absorbs tons of damage in his fights and often gets knocked down before recovering. If we know anything about Ilia, it's that his opponents don't recover well from his epic power.
Oliveira would be wise to attempt takedowns, but Topuria is a very solid wrestler. At UFC 309, Michael Chandler survived Charles' grappling onslaught for nearly three full rounds. I love Topuria's chances in that environment, especially if he can use his scrambling ability to chuck Oliveira off of him.
KO is the move here since the odds force me to pick a method of victory.
UFC 317: How To Bet Oliveira
Oliveira’s size advantage, much like in his fight against Chandler, could play a key role here. With a five-inch reach and three-inch height edge over Topuria, he’s well-positioned to control the distance and gain an upper hand in grappling exchanges.
A submission or decision seems Oliveira's likeliest route to victory, but with Topuria steamrolling through UFC legends, like Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski, I don't like the Brazilian's chances. While his current odds may exaggerate the challenge ahead of him, I still won't pick him to win. Haters can go on Oliveira ML, as picking an outcome is tricky.
UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira Pick
I'm backing Topuria by knockout in this matchup, given his immense power and Oliveira's tendency to absorb damage early. While Oliveira's size and grappling could pose challenges, Topuria’s wrestling and scrambling ability make KO the most compelling bet.
