After his victory at UFC 315, Jack Della Maddalena is set to face Islam Makhachev in a welterweight title fight, as Makhachev attempts to become a double champion.
The odds have Islam Makhachev at -200 and Jack Della Maddalena at +170.
Here are my Islam vs JDM odds and picks for this fight.
Makhachev vs Della Maddalena Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | -200 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | +170 |
Odds as of May 12
Using our odds calculator, Makhachev's -200 odds imply a 66.7% chance of victory, while Della Maddalena's +170 odds suggest a 37% chance. A $100 bet on Makhachev would yield a $50 profit, whereas the same bet on Della Maddalena would return $170 in profit.
Why is Islam favored?
Makhachev has ruled the lightweight division with suffocating grappling and elite control, consistently shutting down his opponents’ game plans. Now he's making the jump to welterweight — a bold move, but one that makes sense given his dominant run. His ability to control where the fight takes place has been a huge part of his success.
That said, moving up in weight is no small task. He’ll be dealing with bigger, stronger guys who can test his strength in ways lightweights couldn’t. How well he handles that size difference will be key to whether he can keep steamrolling opponents in a new division.
How To Bet Makhachev
Makhachev’s path to victory still runs through his grappling, but against Jack Della Maddalena, the test is tougher than some may think. JDM showed excellent takedown defense against Belal Muhammad at UFC 315, staying calm under pressure and scrambling out of bad spots on the ground. That said, Islam is a different beast.
Makhachev doesn’t just shoot for takedowns. He chains them together, uses the clinch, and works his opponents into the fence with precision. He also doesn't waste good positions. Where Belal let JDM off the hook, I think Islam will make the most of those moments and find a finish.
I expect Della Maddalena to hang in there, but my best bet is Makhachev by submission. If the odds swing closer to the event, I'll also look into an Islam by submission/decision double chance bet.
How To Bet della Maddalena
Della Maddalena’s striking was crisp and composed at UFC 315, where he showed not only technical precision but also toughness under fire. He’s long, strong, and hits like a truck. Those qualities make him a real problem for Makhachev on the feet. If this fight stays standing, JDM will have a clear edge. His timing, power, and ability to mix up his shots could give Islam serious trouble, especially over five rounds.
The challenge is keeping it there. Islam is relentless with his grappling and chains takedowns better than anyone in the game. But if Della Maddalena can stuff a few early attempts and make Makhachev work, his size and strength could wear on the smaller fighter. A Della Maddalena win likely comes by KO or a statement decision.
Makhachev vs Della Maddalena Betting Pick
Islam by submission is my pick here. JDM is tough and scrappy enough to survive early grappling exchanges, but over time, I think Islam drags him into deep water. His relentless clinch work and chain wrestling will eventually open up a submission.
