Joe Pyfer is a -390 favorite at Sportsbook as he squares off with UFC veteran Kelvin Gastelum (+310 underdog) in a middleweight scrap at UFC 316 in Newark, New Jersey, on June 7.
The Gastelum vs Pyfer odds are steep, but they reflect the momentum Pyfer carries into this matchup. Still, don’t rush to back a finish. I see better value in a methodical outcome.
See our other UFC 316 content here with Harrison vs Pena preview.
Gastelum vs Pyfer Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | +310 |
| Joe Pyfer | -390 |
Odds as of June 7 at Sportsbook
How To Bet pyfer
Pyfer is the rightful favorite here. He's younger, more explosive, and a legit finishing threat, especially early. But while Pyfer has four stoppages in five UFC fights, this matchup is less forgiving. Gastelum may be inconsistent, but he’s ridiculously tough. He hasn't been knocked out once in 12 years of UFC action.
I like Pyfer to control the pace and push Gastelum backward, but this likely turns into a measured, grind-it-out win. Pyfer by decision is likely playable at plus money and offers a better payout than that chalky moneyline.
How To Bet Gastelum
Gastelum is 3-6 since 2019, but he’s still a live dog in most fights thanks to his chin and cardio. He can eat big shots and keep coming forward, and he's the more experienced fighter by a mile. If Pyfer fades or gets too wild, Gastelum could find a rhythm and make this interesting down the stretch.
That said, it’s hard to trust Gastelum coming off a win over Daniel Rodriguez, and Pyfer’s physicality will be hard to match. If you’re betting Kelvin, go the distance. Gastelum by decision is his clearest (and maybe only) path.
Gastelum vs Pyfer Betting Pick
I’m backing Pyfer by decision. Gastelum’s chin will hold up, but I don’t see him doing enough to sway the judges. A moneyline play on Pyfer is parlay-worthy, but if you're looking for real value, the method prop is your angle.
