The Elon Musk and Donald Trump fall-out may have reached the prediction market sphere. Today, Musk's X platform officially announced that Polymarket would be its official prediction market partner.
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The news comes just a day after Elon Musk and Donald Trump's public dispute on social media, and two weeks after X and Kalshi toyed with a similar partnership. Donald Trump Jr. is a Senior Advisor to Kalshi.
How Will This Polymarket & X Partnership Work?
The partnership is not only being announced today, but is launching today with a "suite of integrations and unique experiences" developed tly by both companies, per a Polymarket press release.
As part of the agreement, data-driven insights will be fed to Polymarket while Polymarket's predictions will "provide live insights, incorporating real-time annotations explaining market moves directly from Grok and relevant đť•Ź posts."
X CEO Linda Yaccarino shared her belief that this partnership will benefit X s who already rely on Polymarket.
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"Polymarket ensures transparency through its prediction markets, and has grown into a staple source of real-time information for many đť•Ź s. We are pleased to partner with Polymarket and look forward to bringing [them] our data and technology to Polymarket s through a range of creative product integrations." -Linda Yaccarino, CEO, X |
Why Partner With Polymarket?
Polymarket is indeed a popular prediction market platform, but it's not currently legal in the USA. In January of 2022, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) found Polymarket guilty of operating an illegal designated contract market (DCM) swap execution facility and fined them $1.4 million.
Then Acting Director of Enforcement for the CFTC, Vincent McGonagle, said, "Market participants [Polymarket] should proactively engage with the CFTC to ensure that our markets remain robust, transparent, and afford customers the protection provided under the CEA and our regulations."
The CFTC simultaneously sent Polymarket a cease-and-desist letter, rendering it unable to operate in the US.
Making this partnership between X and Polymarket particularly striking, as Kalshi is currently free to operate its prediction market across the US.
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The Fallout Continues
It's impossible to ignore the current drama surrounding Elon Musk and Donald Trump and how it relates to this new partnership. As previously stated, Donald Trump Jr. has been a Senior Advisor to Kalshi since his father regained control of the White House.
While a deal of this magnitude is not likely to materialize in a day, we did see the aforementioned deal with X and Kalshi come to light and fall apart in a single day.
Back in May, Bloomberg reported a partnership between xAI and Kalshi. That partnership would provide Kalshi with "tailored AI-generated insights." Kalshi also shared the news with CEO Tarek Mansour, stating: " I could not be more excited to announce Kalshi’s partnership with xAI to further take prediction markets mainstream."
That jubilation was short-lived; Mansour's statement disappeared the same day, and no follow-up announcement was ever made.
Perhaps it would be naive to write off the possibility that this Polymarket and X deal was done so quickly.
