Brian Quintenz Won't Clear Up CFTC's Stance On Prediction Markets

Earlier this year, President Donald Trump nominated former Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) commissioner Brian Quintenz to be the federal regulator's chair. As a current member of Kalshi's board of directors, don't expect him to provide any clarity on the future of prediction markets.

The Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry will conduct Quintenz's confirmation hearing. At the time of writing, no date has been scheduled for the confirmation hearing.

Quintenz On the Role of CFTC In Regulating Gaming

Quintenz will be expected to force the CFTC to take a stance on sports event contracts offered on prediction market platforms once he is confirmed as the chair. Kalshi is the leading voice in the prediction market space, but sports event contracts can also be found at Crypto.com and on Robinhood.

With his attachment to Kalshi as a board member, it's expected that Quintenz would lean in favor of prediction markets. But he's gone on record with the Federalist Society stating that the CFTC must prevent any contract that is considered gaming based on CFTC's Rule 40.11 (a)(1), prohibiting trading of gaming contracts. 

Now, Kalshi does not believe its product to be gaming. In April, CEO Tarek Mansour laid out his argument as to how prediction markets are not gambling but rather, they are financial products.

Our CEO @mansourtarek_ sat down with @TechCrunch to discuss his favorite markets on Kalshi, why prediction markets are so useful, how financial products are distinct from gambling, and more. pic.twitter.com/9ReIHJZOCG

— Kalshi (@Kalshi) April 7, 2025

Prediction markets, being a financial instrument, is a claim Mansour and Kalshi are making now, but just a few months ago, that story was quite different.

Kalshi Is Gambling...According To Themselves

In November 2024, Kalshi tweeted "Stop fighting, start betting" as an ment for its political event contracts surrounding the 2024 Presidential Election. A tweet that demonstrates what the company thinks of its offerings.

Stop fighting, start betting❤️ pic.twitter.com/U8I9ALkoxS

— Kalshi (@Kalshi) November 2, 2024

That's the clearest and most recent example I could find of Kalshi calling their products betting, but Dustin Gouker from Substack Next Event Horizon has 10 examples of marketing materials positioning Kalshi as gambling.

Thus, Kalshi believes it is gambling. That puts Quintenz in an awkward position as he waits to become the next chair of the CFTC.

Quintenz Will Resign, But Will That Matter?

Leading up to his eventual nomination, Quintenz sent a letter to John Einstman, the CFTC's General Counsel, describing the steps he would take to prevent any conflict of interest should he be confirmed. In that letter, Quintenz will resign from Kalshi's board, forfeit unvested stock, and sell the stock he holds within 90 days of his confirmation.

He also added that he won't participate personally in matters involving Kalshi for at least one year.

 

As it stands, the CFTC board is thin. Former chair Rostin Behnam stepped down in February, and four commissioners will be stepping down.

• Summer Mersinger's last day is today, May 30
• Christy Goldsmith Romero's final day is May 31
• Kristin Johnson will leave by the end of the calendar year
• Acting Chair Caroline Pham will step down when a new chair is named.

With the board down to Quintenz, when he's nominated, that puts a ruling on prediction markets a year into the future at the earliest. 

So, while Kalshi is gambling, by its own ission, and Quintenz himself states the CFTC should prohibit any forms of gambling, don't expect the CFTC to come to a decision soon.