Game 4 of the 2025 NBA Finals takes place on Friday night with the Indiana Pacers possessing a 2-1 series lead over the Oklahoma City Thunder, and I've put together four expert player prop picks as the Western Conference champions look to lock things up once again before heading back to the Paycom Center.
Here are the four picks for your consideration, including an UNDER on a PRA (points + rebounds + assists) for Thunder All-Star Jalen Williams (-120) on June 13.
Jalen Williams UNDER 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists vs. Pacers (-120 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30 p.m. ET
There have been five instances this postseason in which Williams has scored 25 or more points in a game, with the latest being Game 3 in which he finished with 26 on 9-of-18 shooting with 11 trips to the free-throw line. Unfortunately, the last two times in which he's contributed at least this many points, the Thunder went on to lose the game. Williams outscored his Most Valuable Player teammate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander each time which obviously played a part in those results.
As far as the PRA market is concerned, Williams has gone UNDER 32.5 in two of the three games versus the Pacers and 10 of the last 15 dating back to Game 1 of the second round against the Denver Nuggets. Now he did go OVER in Game 3 with 26 points, six rebounds, and three assists, but something the 24-year-old wing has failed to do during this stretch is put performances like that together consecutively. If that pattern maintains, an UNDER will be forthcoming for Game 4.
Alex Caruso OVER 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists vs. Pacers (-125 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30 p.m. ET
The PRA department has been a touch more kind to Alex Caruso, as he's exceeded 15.5 in every game of the Finals while coming off the bench. He just ed a line of eight points, five rebounds, and four assists in 32 minutes on Wednesday, although his plus-minus rating of -15 was far and away the worst of any player on Oklahoma City. That PRA streak of his is a welcome change of pace, though, as Caruso went UNDER in all five games of the West finals against the Minnesota Timberwolves along with the last two meetings with Denver.
The elder statesman of the Thunder has actually totalled more minutes (88) in the Finals than two starters in Chet Holmgren (86) and Cason Wallace (80), so being a part of the second unit isn't hindering his ability to achieve OVERs. Caruso has played 30 or more minutes in only two of the Thunder's 19 playoff games, but Game 3 was one of them and that's encouraging.
Tyrese Haliburton OVER 5.5 Rebounds vs. Thunder (+114 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30 p.m. ET
Tyrese Haliburton only averaged 3.5 rebounds across 73 appearances during the regular season, but through three games of the Finals, he's more than doubled that by contributing 7.3 boards per contest. There were only 12 occasions in which he grabbed six or more rebounds, but he's already done so six times in the playoffs. It's easy to forget that he's a 6-foot-5 point guard, with his playmaking and outside shooting often overshadowing that he can be a capable rebounder when he chooses to be.
With an OVER coming in at plus money for just 5.5 rebounds, this wager is a no-brainer. Haliburton has ended with at least nine in two of the three meetings with the Thunder, including nine in Game 3, and he's in the midst of a four-game OVER streak in games played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Obi Toppin OVER 8.5 Points vs. Thunder (-110 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30 p.m. ET
With eight players on the Pacers currently averaging better than nine points per game in the Finals, figuring out who on the roster will stand out on any given night can be quite the chore. Bennedict Mathurin, for example, just went off for 27 points in Game 3 after combining for 19 in Games 1 and 2. Capitalizing on that outburst would make sense, but the thing with Mathurin is that he tends to follow up big lines with next to nothing the following game, which is why I'll be leaning with the more consistent Obi Toppin this time around.
Toppin has actually taken the fifth-most shots against the Thunder with 25, including 16 from behind the arc. He's averaging 9.3 points in 24.1 minutes, so of all the aforementioned players exceeding nine points, Toppin is the only one with fewer than 10 per game. He did miss all three of his 3-point attempts on Wednesday and still finished with eight points, coming up just short of his second OVER of the series. Toppin's output can't be ignored, as there's strong upside he'll get at least nine points for Game 4.
