The 2025 Oklahoma City Thunder, and I've put together four expert player prop picks for this initial matchup.
Here are the four props for your consideration, including an UNDER on a Tyrese Haliburton scoring prop (-115) on June 5.
Tyrese Haliburton UNDER 17.5 Points vs. Thunder (-115 at Sportsbook)
The defensive pressure Haliburton is about to endure in this series is nothing he's come close to combatting this postseason. Oklahoma City will pick him up 70 feet and have the likes of newly-crowned Most Valuable Player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, powerhouse guard Luguentz Dort, and 3-and-D specialist Alex Caruso draped all over him from start to finish to make his life miserable. Darius Garland was rendered a ghost in the conference semifinals against that group, and while Jalen Brunson's numbers for the New York Knicks were strong versus the Thunder, he averaged just as many turnovers as Garland did at four per game.
Haliburton faced all 29 other teams from across the league at least once during the 2024-25 campaign, with the Thunder holding him to his lowest scoring average of 11 points with a usage rate of just 13.5. Most of this was attributed to a four-point night on Dec. 26 on 2-of-6 shooting, as he did exceed Thursday's prop of 17.5 points on March 29 with 18 points in 28 minutes of action. Now Haliburton has fallen UNDER this mark in each of his last two road appearances, as well, shooting a combined 7-of-23 in Games 2 and 5 at Madison Square Garden. Surely Oklahoma City and its No. 1-ranked defense will try and make a statement early, and that could come at the expense of Haliburton's numbers.
Pascal Siakam UNDER 5.5 Rebounds vs. Thunder (+118 at Sportsbook)
There were only 22 occasions out of 78 total appearances in which Pascal Siakam, who was just honored with the Larry Bird trophy for his contributions in the series win over New York, grabbed nine or more rebounds in a single game. He managed to do so twice against the Thunder, at least, maxing out at 10 on Dec. 26. Both of those outings didn't feature Chet Holmgren, though, as he was out of action nursing a serious hip injury, and he's currently leading Oklahoma City in this department through 16 games with 8.6 boards.
Siakam will need to grab fewer than six rebounds in Game 1 in order for this wager to connect at plus money, and that was the case in five of the six meetings with the Knicks averaging five per contest. With Holmgren present and ed for, and with the OVER only amounting to -158 value as of writing, the risk here is worth the reward even with the Thunder ranking second from the bottom in opponent's rebounds at 46.1.
Luguentz Dort OVER 2.5 Made 3-Pointers vs. Pacers (+140 at Sportsbook)
There's no better time, place, or circumstances for Dort to finally break out of the shooting funk he's found himself in for three rounds, with the Montreal native only converting 34.5 percent of his shot attempts and just 30.4 percent from behind the arc. His Game 5 performance against the Minnesota Timberwolves at least conjured up some much-needed momentum after Dort scored 12 points in 38 minutes while burying four triples. It was the first time he had hit three or more since Game 5 against the Denver Nuggets the previous round.
Dort has only gone OVER Thursday's number of 2.5 3-pointers in four of the team's 16 playoff games, which equates to just a 25-percent hit rate. The optimism here stems from how he fared in his most recent outing at the Target Center, along with the fact that he shot a combined 9-of-15 from deep with a pair of OVERs against Indiana during the season.
Chet Holmgren To Record A Double-Double vs. Pacers (+115 at Sportsbook)
If the Thunder are getting the version of Holmgren who crashed the glass against Denver, then this double-double prop is a shoe-in. If he replicates his production from when he battled Minnesota, then sportsbooks will happily accept your donations. The 7-foot-1 giant notched five double-doubles versus the 2023 champs but didn't a single one against the Knicks, so hopefully there's a happy medium to be found here in which Holmgren can at least start the Finals with his first since May 18.
As mentioned earlier, the 23-year-old sat both games with the Pacers due to injury, so beyond analyzing his numbers from the 2023-24 season which amount to very little now, there's really not much to work with. Indiana is fairly pedestrian in this category to begin with ranking 13th out of the 16th qualified teams, and its frontcourt of Siakam and Myles Turner are each grabbing fewer than six per game. With Isaiah Hartenstein's minutes falling below 20 per night, Holmgren is basically the only real threat to achieve a double-double in points and rebounds.
