The eighth-seed Miami Heat take on the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the NBA playoffs. Cleveland will be heavily favored after running roughshod through the Association for much of the season and winning 64 games. While the Heat overcame the Atlanta Hawks in the NBA play-in tournament to make the playoffs with just 37 victories.
Dive further into all the Heat vs Cavaliers first round playoff odds and my expert predictions:
Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers Series Winner Odds
| Team | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Miami Heat | +1500 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | -4000 |
Odds as of April 18th at Sportsbook
Kenny Atkinson's NBA history, scoring 121 points per 100 possessions.
On the flip side, Erik Spoelstra's Heat will be ready and well prepared to defense the Cavs high-flying attack. Miami ranked in the top-10 in defensive efficiency for the sixth straight season, allowing just 101 points per 100. However, outside of Tyler Herro and Andrew Wiggins, Miami lacks the type of offensive playmakers who can create buckets in the playoffs.
According to our odds calculator, Cleveland's -4000 odds imply a 97.56% chance of victory in the Heat vs Cavaliers series.
Heat vs Cavaliers Series Schedule
| Game | Date | Time (ET) | Arena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | Sun. April 20, 2025 | 7 p.m. | Rocket Arena |
| Game 2 | Wed. April 23, 2025 | 7:30 p.m. | Rocket Arena |
| Game 3 | Sat. April 26, 2025 | 1p.m. | Kaseya Center |
| Game 4 | Mon. April 28, 2025 | TBD | Kaseya Center |
| Game 5 (If Necessary) | TBA | TBD | Rocket Arena |
| Game 6 (If Necessary) | TBA | TBD | Kaseya Center |
| Game 7 (If Necessary) | TBA | TBD | Rocket Arena |
Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers 2024-25 Spread and Total Betting History
| Date | Spread & Score Result | Total Points & Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | Cleveland107 @ Miami 112 (+2.5) Heat Cover | O/U 220.5 (UNDER) |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Cleveland 126 @ Miami 106 (+6) Cavaliers Cover | O/U 225.5 (OVER) |
| Mar 5, 2025 | Miami 113 @ Cleveland 122 (-13.5) Heat Cover | O/U 223 (OVER) |
While the Cavaliers are heavy favorites in this first round matchup, bettors should note that the Heat covered in two of their three contests this season. Moreover, Miami is 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against Cleveland. Plus, the Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games in Cleveland.
Additionally, Miami is on quite the run to close the season, finishing 12-4 ATS. Backing the Heat as underdogs in Cleveland to begin this series may be the play. You may have to bite your tongue at times as Miami's offense struggles to score, but Spoelstra's team have a tendency to claw their way back into games.
Heat Player to Watch: Tyler Herro
Herro is the metronome in the Heat's ecosystem. Nearly every action the Heat run involves the former Sixth Man of the Year in some form. Herro averaged 27 points, 6.7 rebound and 5.7 assists in three games against Cleveland this season with scorching hot 50/54/93 shooting splits.
The Kentucky product led Miami in usage rate, scoring and assists this season, and will need to continue his hot shooting to keep the Heat in this series.
Cavaliers Player to Watch: Evan Mobley
Mobley's offensive game took the next step this season, as the big man scored 18.5 points with 9.3 rebounds and 3.2 assists on 56% shooting from the field. The former third-overall pick looked far more comfortable on the offensive end, and became a reliable scoring figure for the Cavs attack.
On the defensive end, Mobley continues to play at a Defensive Player of the Year level, racking up 1.6 blocks, and close to one steal per game. He also ranked in the 93rd percentile in both rim defense and block percentage, forming a two-man wall with Jarrett Allen in the paint.
If Mobley can grow into his role and take the bull by the horns in this first-round playoff series, it could be a sign of further success for the Cavaliers. Look for Mobley to be involved early and often on both ends of the floor.
Heat vs Cavaliers Expert Prediction: Series Correct Score Cavaliers 4-0 +164
The zombie Heat have managed to defy expectations in the NBA playoffs for years. However, their team construction is entirely different this year, with "Playoff Jimmy" now plying his trade in Golden State. Without Butler to hit late-game shots and keep Miami's otherwise moribund offense in games, the Heat will struggle to keep up with the younger, and far more dangerous Cavaliers offense.
Keep an eye the Heat as underdogs in Cleveland early on the spread. But, back Cleveland to come away with the sweep.
