Some things change, while others remain the same. For its 50th anniversary, The Memorial Tournament founded by Jack Nicklaus has been moved back to its original schedule slot two weeks before the U.S. Open. And once again world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the odds favorite to win at Sportsbook (+280) and well ahead of No. 2 odds option Collin Morikawa at +1600.
Those odds are understandable, given that Scheffler has a victory and two third-place finishes in his last three starts at Muirfield Village Golf Club, and two wins and a T4 in his most recent three starts this season. Scheffler’s career average finish in The Memorial is 7.3—the next-best player with more than one start in the event is Christiaan Bezuidenhout at 25.3. So indeed, the stats suggest that it’s Scottie and everyone else this week in Dublin, Ohio, where he’s bidding to become the event’s first back-to-back winner since a guy named Tiger Woods.
But then again, it was a similar situation last week—Scheffler opened the Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth as the +250 favorite, far ahead of +2200 No. 2 choice Jordan Spieth, and yet it was +6000 wager Ben Griffin who took home the title. As great as he is, not even Scheffler can win every week.
Memorial Tournament Odds
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +280 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1600 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1600 |
| Justin Thomas | +1800 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2200 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2800 |
| Viktor Hovland | +2800 |
| Corey Conners | +3000 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +3500 |
| Jordan Spieth | +3500 |
| Daniel Berger | +4000 |
| Shane Lowry | +4000 |
| Tony Finau | +4500 |
| Sepp Straka | +4500 |
Odds as of May 28 at Sportsbook
PGA Tour Memorial Tournament Picks
Scottie Scheffler Each-Way 1-5 (+280) at Sportsbook
No, Scheffler can’t win every week. But he’s almost always in contention—which is why I like backing him with an each-way wager, which splits your bet in two. One half of the stake goes to win, the other half goes toward him finishing within a set number of places (in this case the top five) with the odds on the latter wager cut down to one-fourth. You still get the win payout if he wins, and are covered against a top-five as well. It’s a creative way to back a player who’s placed eighth or better in his past six tournament, with an average finish of 3.3 over that span.
Matt Fitzpatrick Top-5 Finish (+850) at Sportsbook
Fitzpatrick seemed to rediscover his form at the PGA Championship, flirting with contention before settling for a T8 on a very long golf course. Muirfield Village seems an excellent place to continue that run, given Fitzy’s history there—T5 last year, T9 the year before that, a career-best third on the Nicklaus layout in 2020. Course fit is important everywhere, but it seems especially so at the Memorial, given how many players (Fitzpatrick included) play well there again and again and again. And it’s excellent value for a major champion on a favored course, to boot.
Tommy Fleetwood Top-10 Finish (+230) at Sportsbook
Yes, Fleetwood still carries the yoke of never having won a tournament on American soil. Yes, he’s missed the cut in two previous Memorial appearances, and finished T20 in the other. But the Brit has played in Jack’s event just once in the past eight years, so that sample is hardly representative of his play recently. And that play has been largely excellent—Fleetwood has been top-7 or better in three of his last four starts, two of those Signature Events. And Muirfield Village for all its length also demands the short game that is Fleetwood’s strength.
PGA Tour Memorial Tournament Betting Tips
Befitting the resume of its host, The Memorial has always been viewed as a kind of mini-major in of course setup and difficulty level. The rough can be high, the eyebrows around the greens can be bushy, and three of the past five winners have been held to single-digits under par. It all certainly benefits a player like Scheffler, who is better able to stand apart on a tough layout that separates the wheat from the chaff. There’s a reason, after all, that Woods won the thing five times.
And Scheffler, despite some wayward drives en route to a T4 last week in Fort Worth, is certainly once again resembling the player who dominated the PGA Tour with nine victories a year ago. We’re still waiting on challengers to step up—Xander Schauffele hasn’t had a single-digit finish since the Masters, Morikawa hasn’t been the same since his choke job in the Arnold Palmer, and Ludwig Aberg has fallen off the map with an MC-T60-T54 over his last three starts. Oh, and Rory McIlroy is taking this week off.
Given that power vacuum, The Memorial may present opportunity for the likes of Justin Thomas, who’s gone T2-Win in his past two Signature Events—though both of them on shorter, tighter courses than Muirfield Village, the fifth-longest layout on Tour this year. Patrick Cantlay has won twice in Dublin, and showed signs of life with a T4 and T13 in his last two Signature starts. Then there’s Tony Finau, who despite a quiet spring has finished T8 three times at the Memorial, and has been in the top 20 in each of his past two starts.
